Tuesday Predictions

On ABC This Week, George Will just predicted Obama would win 378 electoral votes. Mark Helperin said he will win by over 7%. Also, Will said that as many as 140 million Americans will vote Tuesday. Me, the idiot, thinks these numbers insane. I doubt Obama will win nationally by more than 4%. Nor do I think much more than 120 million Americans will vote.

 

Nu McCarthyism and the 50s Redux

By Ray LeMoine

I love the McCain campaign’s attempts to call Obama a socialist. Wait, didn’t Bush just nationalize the mortgage, banking, and insurance industries? But who cares what socialism actually means—or the fact that your party is practicing it—when you can just revisit the 50s! Joe McCarthy would be proud:

When reporters arrived at the rally, one speaker – it was unclear who it was, and he was already midway through his speech — was describing the upcoming presidential election as “a referendum on socialism,’’ echoing a charge that some Republicans have made in recent days suggesting that Mr. Obama’s tax cut plan was quasi-socialist.

Meanwhile, John Updike fears America’s returned to the 50s socially (not socialism) in his latest novel, The Widows of Eastwick, a sequel to the Cher movie The Witches of Eastwick:

And the younger people, the age we were when we were here — ssso tiresome, just from the look of them, toned-up young mothers driving their overweight boys in overweight S.U.V.’s to hockey practice 20 miles away, the young fathers castrated namby-pambies helping itty-bitty wifey with the housekeeping, spending all Saturday fussing around the lovely home. It’s the ’50s all over again, without the Russians as an excuse.

The burbs sure are boring, yes. But fear not, change is on the way. If the iBanker is dead, as NYmag reports today, then the Burb Dude is next. The last class of McMansion bros are already signed up, mortgage arms fixed. Sadly that model—big house, big car, all paid on credit—is over for the moment. Maybe someday we’ll return to our $500k house with nothing down ways. The economic crisis and subsequent nationalization spasm were GOP policy—though admittedly deregulation was Bill Clinton’s policy as well. Nonetheless, Obama is hardly a socialist. His health care plan was to the right of Hillary Clinton, so don’t buy into the GOP Red Scare. To ammend Updike’s quote, It’s the 50s all over again, but with McCain impersonating McCarthy.

But if this is the 50s, it’s good to remember that JFK and the 60s—America’s most revolutionary postwar decade–were next. Still, unlike the 50s we’re in a major economic downturn. Would the hippies have been able to flourish without riches earned by their 50s raised parents?

 

24 Times.

By Ray LeMoine
The Final Debate: McCain, Obama Dodge Questions and Point/Wag Fingers on Economy and War

Londonderry, NH: women look on at an Obama rally today.

24. That’s how many mentions “Joe the Plumber” got last night. Joe’s a real guy, from Ohio, who would be among the 1% of Americans affected by Obama’s tax increase among those who make over $250k per year.

Yup, that’s about the least important thing ever to be discussed in a political debate during times of economic collapse and war. Disgusting: Worrying about the top one percent of Americans when unemployment is expected to hit 9 or 10% by year’s end. Even if all 100% of the top 1% lost their jobs, that’s still 8-9% of the nation (who aren’t rich) out of work. Why didn’t John McCain address them last night? He could have mentioned how wages have decreased, when adjusted for inflation, over the past 5 years. Instead, McCain feigned like he didn’t care about “washed up terrorist” Bill Ayers even though his campaign has spent millions on ads linking said “terrorist” to Obama. 

Obama, for his part, was pure class. He was a tad boring, but he outplayed McCain on every level save tax-raise fear mongering. In his answers, Obama was aloof and nuanced and charming—a cynical presidential mix for a cynical time. I’m sure the clip of Obama setting the facts straight on his relationship to ex-Weatherman Bill Ayers is being watched by a lot of people today. Unfortunately, Obama used a lot of the same language manipulation tactics (avoiding answering questions with facts and policy proposals, changing topics at random) as McCain. A few Brits I was watching with commented on how sad American politics is. It’s true: the lack of substance last was stunning.

After two dozen plus debates this election season, and almost two years of campaigning, Obama’s proving to be the greatest political talent of my lifetime. He’s caught some lucky breaks, yes, but O’s more of a natural than Bill Clinton. After all, Obama’s overcome not just his race but the Clintons themselves! 

Sitting on a double digit poll lead with three weeks to go, Obama is so close to the White House. But I’m not sure it’s over. Both convetional wisdom and polling—the two most prominent tools used to guage a political race—have been ineffective this years. Polls were off all primary season. And since this year us unprecedented, with a black nominee, “conventional” thinking is unreliable. Nonetheless, Obama has a big cash advantage over McCain. The most visible effect of which will be Obama’s 30-minute prime time special to air on all networks on October 29th. If done correctly, the ad could propel Obama to victory…

 

Did YouTube Pirates Censor A Film About Palin’s Censorship?

By Ray LeMoine
Last month I worked production on a film about Sarah Palin in Alaska. It aired in the UK last week and was later placed on YouTube, receiving 8000 hits in a few days. Today the film was mysteriously taken off YouTube. I was told that if there was a copyright violation (there wasn’t—and all characters signed release forms), YouTube would contact us. They didn’t. So I tried to call them from the Contact Us page at the number below.

Our Address
You can contact YouTube at the address below.

YouTube, LLC
901 Cherry Ave.
San Bruno, CA 94066
USA
Phone: +1 650-253-0000
Fax: +1 650-253-0001

But the Google/YouTube service recording said they “do not at this time provide customer service representatives.” I then made a formal press inquiry (see below) but have yet to hear back.

RE: Removal of Sarah Palin film‏
From: Ray LeMoine (Editor’s note: personal email address removed)
Sent: Sat 10/11/08 1:34 AM
To: press@youtube.com
Cc: (Editor’s note: again, personal email adress removed)

Hello,

I am a journalist who worked production on a film about Sarah Palin in Alaska. The film aired in the UK. We placed it on YouTube and received some 8000 hits in a few days. Then today the film was yanked off YouTube. The film did not violate copyright and its characters all signed release forms. I was wondering who I can speak to for a comment on what happened. I also cced both the correspondent and director who worked on the film.

Here’s the link to the removed film:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1126074661319289940&ei=N9LrSJjqHYHCjgL1kJCcBg&q=journeyman+palin&vt=lf

Thanks,
Ray LeMoine

Oddly enough, the Palin film in question is about censorship. Specifically: Palin’s alleged attempts as mayor of Wasilla, AL, to remove the book “Pastor, I’m Gay” (really) from a public library in the mid-90s. If anyone knows about YouTube and this kind of hacker censorship, please contact me. I’m wondering if our First Amendment rights have been violated by a Palin pirate—and if this is a widespread campaign. If so, the layers of irony are endless. And would YouTube prosecute these hackers like kid who guessed Palin’s email password?

Anyway, the film is back on YouTube here.

 

The Arrival of Joe Biden

By Ray LeMoine

Record audiences tuned in to last night’s VP debate, which Joe Biden so clearly won it’s sickening to hear the media giving Sarah Palin any credit. Sure, Palin’s not a moron. Despite all her flubs with Couric this week, it’s obvious that anyone who rises so fast is no dimwit. But as a politician—not a personality—Palin so lost the debate.

A democratically elected politician’s job is to take the will of the polity and create policy. Last night Sarah Palin showed so little policy understanding it was scary. In fact, she dodged one of the most important policy questions. When asked what was worse, a destabilized Pakistan or nuclear Iran, Palin answered about Iraq. Yet the media’s been calling the debate a tie, and some are even giving her high marks.

Here’s a great example of what’s wrong with American politics: On ABC.com, George Stephanopolous wrote a post-VP debate wrap-up where he judged Sarah Palin’s and Joe Biden’s “strategy,” “style,” and “accuracy.” What’s missing? Oh, how about “command of subject” or “answers of substance”? Debate is the art of “logical argument, which only examine the consistency from axiom, and factual argument,” not a strategic, style show down. On every question, save energy policy, Joe Biden had a far better command of facts. (Biden was no slouch on energy policy, rather it’s Palin’s bread and butter issue—state oil dividends literally provided every Alaskan with $3500 cash this year—and she knows her stuff.)

When “style” and “strategy” are more important than policy, is it even politics? That’s more like a talent/game show—ie America’s Most Stylish, Accurate Debater! Whatever, this country sucks.

But Joe Biden, wow, what a night. The guy’s been waiting three decades for his chance to be in the national spotlight. And it showed. He came out like a man who’d just drank eight Red Bulls and taken four Ritalins. His rapid-fire responses backed by fact-filled policy examples and recommendations were not only impressive they were often dead-on. I always questioned Obama’s choice of Biden over Hillary. But seeing Joe in Full Biden last night changed my opinion. His cordial, expert performance was a walk-off.

John McCain will not see a poll bump from the VP debate. Unless America really is dumb enough to put “style” over substance.

 

Palin’s Rape Policy Questioned in Lead Boston Globe Editorial

By Ray LeMoine

Sarah Palin backed a despicable policy as mayor of Wasilla, AK: making rape victims pay for their own post-crime exams. The story hits the Boston Globe editorial page today. Of all Palin’s mid-90s shadiness—from book banning to dinosaur denying—this is the sketchiest. Many in Wasilla told me it was the inclusion of a morning after pill that made Palin’s administration cut funding for rape victims. Alaska leads the nation in a rape, by a factor of two, and it’s appalling that a woman would make victims pay for treatment.

Wasilla made rape victims pay
October 1, 2008
ONE QUESTION that Sarah Palin should answer during tomorrow’s debate is why, during her tenure as mayor of Wasilla, the town started charging rape victims or their insurers for hospital emergency-room rape kits and examinations.

The policy so outraged the Alaska Legislature that in 2000 it passed unanimously a bill forbidding such fees. But Palin has never explained why, under her leadership, the town stopped picking up the cost of the swabs, specimen containers, and tests.

A spokeswoman for Palin wrote to USA Today that Palin “does not believe, nor has she ever believed, that rape victims should have to pay for an evidence-gathering test.” But that was the practice in Wasilla while she was mayor.

If Palin were like most vice-presidential nominees of the past, reporters would have long since had a chance to quiz her on this subject, and many others. So far, though, the McCain campaign team has treated her as though she were in the witness protection program, permitting just three interviews with television personalities and no open-ended press conferences.

After the Alaska Legislature banned the fees, Palin’s handpicked police chief, Charlie Fannon, complained that the state’s action would force the town to spend $5,000 to $14,000 a year to cover the costs. “I just don’t want to see any more burden put on the taxpayer,” Fannon said.

But the policy on rape kits may have had less to do with easing the burden on taxpayers and more to do with Palin’s position on abortion. She has said she opposes it even in cases of rape or incest.

Generally, victims of sexual assault have the option of an emergency contraception pill, which some opponents of abortion consider tantamount to abortion itself. Does Palin support the decision two years ago of the US Food and Drug Administration to allow over-the-counter sales of emergency contraception pills?

Whether the fee-for-kits policy reflected Palin’s budgetary zeal or her extreme view on abortion, voters deserve to know. As Alaska’s governor in 2000, Tony Knowles, put it: “We would never bill the victim of a burglary for finger-printing and photographing the crime scene, or for the cost of gathering other evidence.”

But in Wasilla they would, if the crime was rape.

 

Will it Happen?

By Ray LeMoine
Ye Ole Miss, Oxford, MS.

Networks predict audiences of 100 million for tomorrow’s debate–if McCain doesn’t cancel.

 

Bercovici Takes Down Taibbi’s Palin Hit Job

By Ray LeMoine

Matt Taibbi hates half of America

Portfolio Media critic Jeff Bercovici destroys Matt Taibbi’s Rolling Stone RNC essay (thanks for sending me this Jeff N). Taibbi, RS’s National Magazine Award-winning political writer, may have extraordinary writing talent, but he rarely gets beyond name-calling and cliche. Here’s the best stuff form Bercovici’s take down:

What is the point of Matt Taibbi?

His rhetorical style consists of little more than in-your-face vulgarity, hyperbole and cliché. Read his latest column, on Sarah Palin, if you don’t believe me.

Reporting from the convention, Taibbi sets the scene by describing the “four-chinned delegates from places like Arkansas and Georgia” and “their turkey-necked female companions.” (The resort to physiognomy is classic Taibbi, by the way — greedy politicians are always fat, and hypocrites are always ugly.) Palin, we’re told, is a “provincial tyrant.” Her “meanness” is “of the small-town variety as understood by pretty much anyone who has ever sat around in his ranch-house den dreaming of a fourth plasma-screen TV or an extra set of KC HiLites for his truck.” She is “a two-bit caricature culled from some cutting-room-floor episode of Roseanne.” (Certainly, two-bit caricature is something Taibbi knows about.) And she was chosen, he says, in the hope that:

“John Q. Public will drop his giant sized bag of Doritos in gratitude, wipe the sizzlin’ picante dust from his lips and rush to the booth to vote for her. Not because it makes sense, or because it has a chance of improving his life or anyone else’s, but simply because…that image on TV reminds him of the mean brainless slob he sees in the mirror every morning.”

Oh, yeah, and he also compares Republicans to Nazis (“It was like watching Gidget address the Reichstag”).

What’s he trying to accomplish here? If his language or imagery were a little fresher, his towering contempt for average Americans and their ways might at least be humorous. But Doritos and double chins? Not exactly virgin comic territory. Yet as a serious bit of commentary, it fails utterly: No attempt whatsoever is made to understand his subject except in terms of the broadest stereotypes. I can’t imagine Taibbi’s going to win over any wavering swing voters by insulting them and the culture they inhabit.

The only real achievement of writing like this is to encourage already like-minded readers to congratulate themselves on their superior tastes and disdain for the other side….

Here’s some more hyperbole from Taibbi’s RNC story:

Sarah Palin is a symbol of everything that is wrong with the modern United States. As a representative of our political system, she’s a new low in reptilian villainy, the ultimate cynical masterwork of puppeteers like Karl Rove. But more than that, she is a horrifying symbol of how little we ask for in return for the total surrender of our political power. Not only is Sarah Palin a fraud, she’s the tawdriest, most half-assed fraud imaginable, 20 floors below the lowest common denominator, a character too dumb even for daytime TV...

How many different ways can you say one thing? “All that’s wrong with America,” “too dumb even for daytime TV.” Really? All that’s wrong with America is best summed up by the air war waged over Pushto civilians, by torture, domestic spying, and Iraq—not the female Governor of the Frontier State. Ask anyone in Alaska about Palin and the last thing you’ll hear is “fraud.” In fact, I was up there last week, and both Democrats and Republicans alike described her with words like “natural,” “charming,” and “brilliant.”

Yes, Palin’s disgusting anti-gay, pro-life social views may be a window into a lot of America’s wrongs. But her record as Gov actually isn’t that bad. She never pushed her social views as state policy. And she was often more popular with centrist Democrats (ie, Alaska’s Obamas) than the GOP establishment. Even the left-wing editor of Anchorage’s biggest paper admits he underestimated Palin and that she’s been tough on big oil and “great spectator sport.”

Taibbi admits, “The Palin speech was a political masterpiece, one of the most ingenious pieces of electoral theater this country has ever seen.” He then goes on to call Palin a “puffed-up dimwit.” Where’s the credit for the “dim-wit” who gave the masterpice speech? And where’s the mention that Obama’s rise is of a similar ilk—luck combined with hard political tact.

Look, there’s a lot to dislike about Sarah Palin, but Rolling Stone shouldn’t be publishing blatant, baseless hit jobs of national political figures. The Palin story is complex; she’s obviously not a moron, having risen so fast so quickly. Journalists are supposed to try and present true portraits. Matt Taibbi has failed.

 

“Palin’s town charged women for rape exams,” says CNN

Palin’s people in FL

Sarah Palin’s charging of rape victims for forensic exams—despite a state-wide policy of covering the costs—hit national cable news today:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s hometown required women to pay for their own rape examinations while she was mayor, a practice her police chief fought to keep as late as 2000. A former Alaskan lawmaker says it seems unlikely that Gov. Sarah Palin was unaware of Wasilla’s policy.

Former state Rep. Eric Croft, a Democrat, sponsored a state law requiring cities to provide the examinations free of charge to victims. He said the only ongoing resistance he met was from Wasilla, where Palin was mayor from 1996 to 2002.

“It was one of those things everyone could agree on except Wasilla,” Croft told CNN. “We couldn’t convince the chief of police to stop charging them.” Alaska’s Legislature in 2000 banned the practice of charging women for rape exam kits — which experts said could cost up to $1,000.

Many in Wasilla and Anchorage said to me last week that Palin opposed the kits because they had morning after pills, which clash with governor’s pro-life beliefs.

Meanwhile, Palin drew 60,000 in central Florida yesterday. The Miami Herald has it wrong in this lede though:

In the biggest event of the 2008 campaign in Florida so far, Sarah Palin drew tens of thousands of people Sunday to a Central Florida town square decked out like the Fourth of July for a speech aimed at pumping up the state’s Republican heartland.

Actually, Obama’s 75K in Portland and 200k in Berlin were bigger rallies. As was his nomination speech (80k), if you count the DNC.

 

Palin and rape…

…two stories.
By Ray LeMoine

While in Alaska last week working on a series of Sarah Palin pieces, I met radio host and blogger Shannon Moore. She wrote a devastating piece about Palin’s policy as mayor of Wasilla, AL, detailing the Palin administration’s making rape victims pay for their own “rape kits”—forensic packages that are free everywhere else in Alaska and America—because a morning after pill was included. Knowing Palin’s pro-life tendencies, this story seems plausible, albeit despicable. Here’s “Life Begins At Rape”:

I sat with a rape victim during the “harvesting of evidence”. Mascara smeared eyes stared blankly out from a cave of shame. “We’ve got swimmers,” announced the forensic tech in the lab next door. My friend didn’t look surprised. In her 60’s, she was still asked if she felt the need for emergency contraception. Surviving the process would have only been compounded and made worse with an itemized bill; victimized twice courtesy of Sarah Palin and the city of Wasilla.

Much can be learned about the Palin Administration’s family values from reviewing their spending priorities. Former Chief of Police Irl Stambaugh included forensic rape kits (up to $1,200 per kit) in his budget requests. He was fired by Palin in 1997. In her termination letter, Palin wrote, “…I do not feel I have your full support in my efforts to govern the city of Wasilla. Therefore I intend to terminate your employment. . . ” Staumbaugh headed the police department since it was created in 1993. Before that, he served 22 years with the Anchorage Police Department rising to the rank of captain. Sarah Palin hired Charlie Fannon as the new Wasilla Chief of Police and said it was one of her best decisions as mayor. Fannon eliminated the forensic rape kits from the budget. Though the number of rapes weren’t reported, Fannon claimed it would save Wasilla taxpayers $5,000 to $14,000 a year.

Meanwhile, Sandra Bernhard was captured on video at a stand-up gig wishing rape on Palin. The video is sad, and Bernhard is annoying, but it’s getting a lot of press.